Parkinson’s Disease Could Affect 25 Million People Worldwide In The Next 25 Years

Parkinson's disease, a degenerative neurological disorder, affected 11.9 million people in 2021 and will affect 25.2 million people globally by 2050, representing an alarming 112% rise. According to a recent study released by The BMJ, this rise is mainly due to population aging and hence ranks as one of the most rapidly growing neurological disorders based on prevalence and disability. This alarming increase necessitates immediate global health interventions, research innovation, and policy reform to counteract its effects on people and health systems globally.

Employing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, scientists studied the Parkinson's disease prevalence in 195 countries and territories from 2022 to 2050. Their results show an increase in all-age prevalence per 100,000 population by 76% and a 55% increase when adjusted for age variation. These estimates bring into perspective vast differences in the rates of regional growth, with the highest share projected to fall on East Asia at 10.9 million cases, and secondly, South Asia at 6.8 million cases.

On the other hand, Oceania and Australasia are estimated to have the lowest number of cases, with estimates of fewer than 200,000 cases by 2050, compared to more than 10 million in East Asia. The fastest growth is expected in western Sub-Saharan Africa (292%), and central and eastern Europe can potentially see a comparatively modest increase of 28% owing to declining population and low contributions from aging populations.

Why Are Parkinson's Cases Increasing?

The research identifies two key drivers of the projected increase in Parkinson's disease cases:

Population Aging (89%) – With an increase in life expectancy across the globe, the population of people achieving older age groups, especially above 80 years, is on the rise. This population trend has a strong influence on the incidence of age-related conditions, such as Parkinson's.

Population Growth (20%) – With more people, there are more absolute numbers of cases, further increasing the worldwide burden of Parkinson's disease.

Moreover, lifestyle differences, genetic susceptibility, and environmental exposures can also lead to regional variation in prevalence. Although smoking cessation campaigns have been effective in terms of health gains overall, certain research indicates that giving up smoking may be linked with a slight rise in cases of Parkinson's. However, such findings must be interpreted cautiously.

Are Men at Greater Risk?

The research also indicates a growing gender disparity in Parkinson's incidence. From 1.46 in 2021, the male-female ratio is projected to increase to 1.64 by 2050. The causes for the disparity are still under study, but possible ones include hormonal variations, genetic factors, and lifestyle factors.

Role of Lifestyle and Prevention

Though there is no cure for Parkinson's disease yet, studies indicate that some lifestyle elements have the potential to shape its incidence and progression.

Physical Activity – Engaging in regular exercise has been linked to a reduced risk of Parkinson’s, potentially due to its neuroprotective effects.

Diet and Nutrition – A balanced diet rich in antioxidants, omega-3 fatty acids, and plant-based nutrients may support brain health.

Environmental Factors – Exposure to pesticides, heavy metals, and air pollution has been associated with an increased risk, suggesting a need for improved public health measures.

The growing incidence of Parkinson's disease highlights the need for a multi-dimensional strategy in healthcare and research:

Improved Treatment – Researchers are investigating new drugs, gene therapy, and stem cell therapies that target modifying disease progression and enhancing quality of life.

Improved Forecasting Models – Experts propose that combining sophisticated predictive methods may improve future estimates and assist healthcare policymakers in resource allocation.

Enhanced Healthcare Infrastructure – Nations with fast-aging populations need to increase neurological care, rehabilitation, and caregiving support systems access.